Active Pattern to Ensue for End of March/Beginning of April

An active pattern is on tap for the end of the month/beginning of April. The area will see multiple chances for thunderstorms, some of which may be severe. Our first chance of severe weather is Thursday 3/27.

Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Convective Outlook

The main threat accompanying any of these storms will be large hail 1-1.5" in diameter, though the overall threat appears very low. Timing looks to be this afternoon into the evening.

Following the limited severe threat on Thursday, another system looks to impact the area this weekend, with the main severe threat being on Sunday. This threat looks a little more solid compared to Thursday's, but the overall threat still is low, and nowhere near as substantial as what we saw earlier this month.

SPC Day 4 Outlook

All severe hazards will be possible, including tornadoes. The exact timing, and extent of the threat remains unclear, but will become clearer in the days to come.

6Z ECMWF valid Sun 3/30 7p CDT

The European model shows a large cluster of thunderstorms pushing through the area late Sunday night. Gusty winds, large hail and a few tornadoes will be possible.

Beyond Day 4, things are a bit less clear, though some analog-based guidance is indicating another potential for severe weather on Day 8 (Thursday 4/3).

CIPS Analog-Based Severe Guidance (Based on GEFS 2025032700UTC)

CIPS Analog severe weather guidance shows a 15% severe probability over the area on day 8 (see above photo). Additionally, the CSU Severe probability forecast shows a severe weather threat across the region on the same day (see below photo). Due to model discrepancies this far out, the SPC has not added a severe threat, stating low predictability as the reason, though we will closely monitor this over the next few days.

PM 3/27 11:57a CDT