Severe Weather Outbreak Possible Wednesday, Significant Flash Flooding Likely Through This Weekend
- Northern Illinois Severe Weather
- Mar 31
- 2 min read
A very concerning event appears to unfold towards the middle of this week, with significant severe weather likely across the entire area. Strong tornadoes, massive hail, and significant wind gusts will be possible with any storm. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the entire area under an Enhanced (level 3/5) risk, and mention "it remains very possible that a categorical upgrade will eventually be needed for some part of the region." meaning an upgrade to MDT (level 4/5) or perhaps eventually even a HIGH (level 5/5) risk will be needed within the next 72 hours.
It appears that a particularly conductive atmosphere will be in place across the area, with low-level moisture return being aided by a relatively strong (40-60kt.) low-level jet. Favorable low-level moisture return and upper-level difluence will support widespread thunderstorm development along/ahead of the cold front from IL down through the ArkLaTex area.
Some models indicate dew points may approach 70 degrees in some areas, which is incredible for this time of year.
Unfortunately, it appears the environment will be quite favorable for tornadoes. Significant moisture-return will combine with very strong low and mid-level shear. Wind fields will be quite favorable for tornadic thunderstorms, especially since storms are expected to be oriented orthogonally to the max shear.
The above image shows an area of 40-60 knots of bulk shear across the area. There will be the potential for strong tornadoes if supercells can sustain themselves through the afternoon/evening. Otherwise, a scattered to widespread damaging wind threat and large to very large hail threat will persist.
Not only will severe weather be possible, but potentially historic flash flooding is expected across the region from Wednesday through Saturday. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH (see our current alerts section for more) has been issued for much of the area from Wednesday morning through Saturday. We expect anywhere from 4-15" of rain to fall across the area, with highest accumulation totals near the Ohio River.
Stay tuned for updates.
PM 540p CDT 3/31/25
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